Measuring Likely Voters. A Model for Predicting Electoral Participation in Romanian Presidential Elections

Abstract

Predicting voter turnout by estimating the proportion of likely voters as accurately as possible is a challenging task and it is debated both in literature and among experts actively involved in the field of sociological research and polling organizations. While there are several variables that influence turnout, and also several methods and models that have been put into practice over time, in reality there is no magic formula for correctly measuring, before an election, the percentage of individuals that are most likely to vote. Each national context comes with particular variables, as well as historical factors and demographic dynamics that need to be taken into account. We propose a model built on pre-election survey data and on past official election statistics, which has been tested and proven viable in the context of the 2019 Romanian presidential election.